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20th Annual Conference of the International Group for Lean Construction - San Diego, California, USA - 2012

Arranging Precast Production Schedules Using Demand Variability

Chien-Ho Ko¹

¹Associate Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, National Pingtung University of Science and Technology, 1, Shuefu Rd., Neipu, Pingtung 912, Taiwan, phone: +886-8-7703202, fax: +886-8-7740122, e-mail: [email protected]; Research Director, Lean Construction Institute- Taiwan; Executive Director, Lean Construction Institute-Asia

Abstract

Demand variability is the biggest headache for fabricators. The objective of this research is to develop an improvement plan that continuously enhances production control systems for precast fabrication. A Lead Time Estimation Model (LTEM) is established to reduce the impact of demand variability. Two principles are proposed to adjust the production schedule according to the estimated lead times. In the LTEM process, previous jobs awarded from specific customers are analyzed for customer behavior. Potential fabrication lead time is established for specific customers for forthcoming projects. The adjustment principles i.e. 1) start fabrication later relative to the required delivery dates and 2) shift production milestones backward to the end of the production process, are built based on reducing the impact of demand variability. These principles are applied to produce a robust production schedule that reduces the impact of demand variability. The effectiveness of the developed improvement plan, LTEM, and the adjustment principles are validated using a real precast fabricator.

Keywords

Demand variability, lead times, production planning, precast fabrication.

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