TY - CONF TI - A Predictive Method for Benefits Realisation Through Modelling Uncertainty in Front End Design C1 - Dublin, Ireland C3 - Proc. 27th Annual Conference of the International Group for Lean Construction (IGLC) SP - 1321 EP - 1332 PY - 2019 DO - 10.24928/2019/0161 AU - Serugga, Joas AU - Kagioglou, Mike AU - Tzortzopoulos, Patricia AD - PhD Candidate, Huddersfield, HD1 3DH, UK, +44 7553231992, joas.serugga@hud.ac.uk AD - Professor of Process Management, Art, Design and Architecture, School., Dean, Univ. of Huddersfield, Huddersfield, HD1 3DH, UK, +44 1484472289, m.kagioglou@hud.ac.uk AD - Professor of Integrated Design, Architecture and 3D Design, Depart, Univ. of Huddersfield, Huddersfield, HD1 3DH, UK, +44 1484472281, p.tzortzopoulos@hud.ac.uk AB - Many projects continue to fail to deliver intended benefits amid uncertainty in benefits realisation (BR) programs. This is more so in Front End Design (FED) where processes remain not only understudied but also informal yet reliant on knowledge sharing. As a result, there is an emergent need for new decision support tools to support benefits delivery processes. The paper addresses uncertainty with FED processes as a way of facilitating decision making as an enabler to benefits delivery of construction projects using uncertainty modelling. The paper adopts a Dempster-Shafer approach using probability theory. This is combined with Quality Function Deployment for user and design requirements capture and management. A conceptual model is suggested that forms a basis for future validation and evaluations in action research in various contexts. The Paper introduces a novel approach to uncertainty modelling in FED to support decision making. The Dempster-Shafer Bayesian based approach also contributes to new ways for capturing contextual influences to benefits realisation. KW - Benefits Realisation KW - Dempster-Shafer Theory KW - Uncertainty Modelling PB - T2 - Proc. 27th Annual Conference of the International Group for Lean Construction (IGLC) DA - 2019/07/03 CY - Dublin, Ireland L1 - http://iglc.net/Papers/Details/1703/pdf L2 - http://iglc.net/Papers/Details/1703 N1 - Export Date: 29 March 2024 DB - IGLC.net DP - IGLC LA - English ER -